Is San Francisco a buyer’s market or a seller’s market right now?

Author: Janice Lee | Last Updated: August, 2026

San Francisco is a seller’s market. The city has about 1.4 months of inventory, and in July the typical single-family home sold for 25% over its asking price. Condos are closer to balanced, closing near list, but sellers hold the advantage in nearly every segment.

The details are where it gets useful, because the answer changes depending on what you’re buying or selling.

How we know

Months of supply is the standard measure. It’s how long the current inventory would last at the current pace of sales. Under three months is a seller’s market, over six is a buyer’s market, and the middle is balanced.

San Francisco has 653 active listings against 5,552 closings over the trailing twelve months. That works out to roughly 1.4 months. Not close to the line.

What sellers are getting

The single-family numbers are the strongest I’ve seen in a while. Median sale price hit $2,000,000 in July, up 21.5% from $1,645,875 a year earlier. The median home closed at 125.1% of its list price, compared with 110.3% last July. Half of all homes went under contract within 12 days.

Some of that 125% reflects how listing agents price here, deliberately below expected value to draw competing offers. But a 15-point jump in a single year is more than strategy explains. Buyers are bidding past list and doing it faster.

Condos improved too, though from a different starting point. Closings rose 21.4%, from 206 to 250, with the median price at $1,192,500. The bigger change was speed: a condo took 43 days to sell last July and takes 20 now.

Where buyers still have room

Two places, and they’re worth knowing about.

Condos closed at a median 100.4% of list price in July, essentially at asking. Compare that to 125.1% for single-family homes and the gap is 25 points. If your budget works for a condo, you’re competing in a fundamentally different market than the people fighting over houses.

The other opening is the bottom of the market. Homes under $1.5 million saw the median price slip 3.4% year over year, to $963,250, and they close at about list. That segment isn’t catching the price pressure lifting everything above it.

Everywhere else is hard. In the $1.5M to $3M range the median buyer paid 119% of list. Above $3 million, where sellers accepted slightly under asking a year ago, the median now runs 117.8%, and closings in that band doubled from 24 to 49.

What’s actually driving this

Not mortgage rates, which is the usual explanation. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.69% the week of August 6, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. A year earlier it was 6.63%. Six basis points over twelve months.

The rates that matter are older ones. Owners holding mortgages from 2020 and 2021 are sitting near 3%, and moving means refinancing the next house at nearly 6.7%. For many that math doesn’t work, so they stay, remodel instead of listing, and the house that would have come to market never does.

Demand is normal. Supply is what broke.

If you’re selling

This is a strong position. Homes are clearing in under two weeks at the median and the typical single-family seller got well over asking. You shouldn’t need to offer concessions or cover a buyer’s closing costs.

Price on the comps and let competition work. If your listing sits past three weeks in these conditions, the price is the problem.

One exception: under $1.5 million, prices softened. If your home falls in that range you have less room to test a number.

If you’re buying

Budget past the list price and get pre-approved before you start looking, not while you’re writing an offer.

Know your appraisal gap tolerance in advance. If you win a house at 25% over asking and the appraisal comes in under contract, you cover the difference in cash. How much you can absorb determines what you can actually bid, and it’s better to work that out at the kitchen table than during a deadline.

And run the condo numbers even if you came in wanting a house. That 25-point spread in sale-to-list is the largest opening in this market.

Frequently asked questions

How many months of inventory does San Francisco have? About 1.4 months as of July 2026, based on 653 active listings against 5,552 closings over the previous twelve months. Under three months is a seller’s market.

Are homes selling above asking in San Francisco? Yes. The median single-family home closed at 125.1% of list price in July. Condos closed at 100.4%, essentially at asking.

Is it a good time to buy in San Francisco? It’s a difficult time. Inventory is scarce and buyers are paying well over asking on houses. Condos and homes under $1.5 million are the softer segments.

How fast are homes selling? The median single-family home went under contract in 12 days in July. Condos took 20, down from 43 a year ago.

Will the market shift if rates fall? Possibly, but not in an obvious direction. Lower rates would free up owners locked into 3% mortgages, adding supply. They’d also bring back buyers who’ve been waiting. Which side moves first decides whether it helps or hurts you.

The bottom line

Seller’s market, clearly, and driven by a supply shortage rather than by anything happening with financing. Sellers have leverage they haven’t had in a while. Buyers have two real openings, condos and the sub-$1.5M segment, and very little room anywhere else.

Data: San Francisco MLS closed sales, July 2025 and July 2026. Inventory calculated from active listings against trailing twelve-month closings. Mortgage rate from Freddie Mac PMMS, week of August 6, 2026. For the full month-by-month breakdown, see the July market analysis.